What would've happened in Minnesota had a vaccine for COVID-19 never been created? It would've blown away the darkest days of the pandemic last October-December when Minnesota at one point had 1,840 people hospitalized because of the virus.
The study, which is self-proclaimed by Mayo Clinic experts as a "best guess" for what would've happened, shows a graph where the peak of a spring/summer surge ongoing now would've more than doubled the fall 2020 peak (graph further below).